Aviation Carbon 2026

As aviation transitions from ambition to execution, decarbonisation is becoming a near-term financial challenge. Airlines are facing rising costs from carbon pricing, SAF mandates and compliance obligations, all while operating within structurally thin margins. This session takes a hard look at the economic reality of net zero, exploring whether current pathways are financially sustainable and where the real pressure points lie. Assessing the financial strain of decarbonisation on airline profitability

• Evaluating exposure to rising carbon costs and regulatory pressure
• Understanding trade-offs between growth, sustainability and competitiveness
• Identifying where airlines can realistically influence outcomes

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The global regulatory landscape is becoming increasingly complex, with overlapping schemes, evolving mandates and diverging regional approaches shaping airline strategy. While policy is intended to drive decarbonisation, it is also introducing new layers of uncertainty and operational complexity. This discussion examines whether current frameworks are providing the clarity needed for long-term decision-making- or creating fragmentation that slows progress. Attendees will gain a clearer view of how policy signals translate into real-world impact across carbon markets and fuel strategies.

• Comparing CORSIA, EU ETS and regional schemes to assess fragmentation
• Evaluating carbon credit integrity and market confidence risks
• Analysing how SAF mandates align (or clash) with supply realities
• Determining whether current frameworks support strategic decision-making

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Despite strong demand signals, capital deployment across aviation decarbonisation remains constrained. Projects struggle to reach final investment decision, while investors continue to question risk, return and long-term certainty. This panel dives on what it actually takes to unlock capital at scale—across SAF, carbon markets and emerging removal solutions. From investor expectations to policy alignment, the discussion will unpack where the barriers lie and what needs to change to move from pipeline to delivery.

• Understanding investor expectations and risk-return thresholds
• Identifying barriers preventing projects reaching financial close
• Exploring the role of blended finance and policy support

Evaluating where capital is flowing—and where it is not 

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With tightening EU ETS frameworks, declining free allocations and increasing compliance obligations, airlines face growing financial exposure that directly impacts route economics and profitability. This discussion investigates how carbon pricing is reshaping decision-making across the business, from fleet planning to network strategy, and how airlines can prepare for a future of structurally higher carbon costs.

• Assessing impact of carbon pricing on operating models
• Evaluating long-term cost exposure under EU ETS and global markets
• Understanding interaction between pricing mechanisms and behaviour
• Preparing for increasing financial pressure from carbon compliance

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Sustainable Aviation Fuel remains central to aviation’s decarbonisation strategy—but the gap between ambition and delivery is widening. Supply remains constrained, costs remain high, and reliance on HEFA pathways is approaching its limits. Here we will assess where the SAF market really stands today, exploring the structural challenges that must be overcome to scale production. Attendees will gain clarity on future supply dynamics, pricing trajectories and the timing of next-generation fuel pathways.

• Analysing global SAF supply-demand imbalances
• Understanding feedstock limitations and transition risks
• Evaluating cost trajectories and affordability challenges
• Identifying when alternative pathways must scale

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With ReFuelEU Aviation now moving from policy into active implementation, airlines are dealing with the practical realities of compliance—reporting obligations, verification scrutiny and operational challenges linked to SAF uptake. Early reporting cycles have already highlighted gaps in data, inconsistencies in interpretation and pressure on internal processes.

This deep dive focuses on what operators need to get right in 2026, drawing on real-world experience from the first phase of implementation. It will examine how reporting and verification are being handled in practice, where airlines are encountering difficulties and how expectations from regulators and verifiers are evolving. Attendees will gain practical guidance to strengthen compliance processes, avoid common pitfalls and prepare for tighter enforcement and future regulatory updates.

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As regulatory focus shifts beyond CO₂, non-CO₂ emissions - particularly contrails - are moving rapidly from research to early-stage compliance frameworks. With the EU’s Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) requirements now in force and tools such as NEATS being operationalised, airlines are entering a new phase of complexity that directly impacts operations, reporting and future cost exposure. 

This deep dive provides a practical, up-to-date view of non-CO₂ compliance, focusing on what airlines need to do now to prepare for evolving regulatory expectations. It will explore how monitoring requirements are being implemented in practice, the role of emerging tools and methodologies, and how operators can begin to integrate non-CO₂ considerations into flight planning, data systems and decision-making. 

Attendees will gain a clear understanding of the current regulatory landscape, the operational implications of non-CO₂ measurement and mitigation, and the likely direction of future policy—ensuring they are prepared not just for compliance, but for what comes next. 

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Scaling aviation fuels requires more than demand—it requires bankable projects, aligned incentives and coordinated action across the value chain. Bringing together perspectives from policy, finance and industry, the discussion will explore how to structure viable projects, align stakeholders and accelerate deployment at scale.

• Structuring projects to reach final investment decision
• Aligning policy, capital and industry demand signals
• Exploring long-term contracting and offtake models
• Accelerating deployment through coordinated investment

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As airlines enter a new phase of compliance under CORSIA, the realities of carbon credit markets are becoming increasingly apparent. Limited supply, evolving eligibility criteria and concerns over credit quality are creating both financial and reputational risks. Here, our speakers will examine how airlines can navigate this complex landscape, focusing on risk management, procurement strategy and maintaining confidence in carbon markets under growing scrutiny.

• Assessing supply shortages and long-term availability risks
• Evaluating credit quality, invalidation and reputational exposure
• Understanding insurance and risk mitigation strategies
• Strengthening procurement decisions under uncertainty

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As China accelerates its path toward carbon neutrality, its evolving carbon market is becoming a critical lever in aviation decarbonization. From the expansion of the national ETS to the emerging role of SAF and international alignment with CORSIA, the direction of travel is clear—but the implementation remains complex. This session provides a strategic, China-focused perspective on how carbon markets, SAF development and regulatory frameworks are converging, and what this means for global airlines, fuel producers and market participants navigating both compliance and opportunity.

• The trajectory of China’s national ETS and its implications for aviation and international carbon market alignment
• The role of SAF within China’s decarbonization strategy, including policy signals, production scale and demand-side drivers
• The status of CORSIA and voluntary carbon markets
• Opportunities for international collaboration and investment as China scales up on ETS and speeds up on SAF development

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As CORSIA evolves, managing carbon credit risk is becoming a shared challenge across the ecosystem. From changing eligibility criteria to questions of liability and the emergence of insurance mechanisms, the market is increasingly structured to distribute—and in some cases minimise—risk exposure for airlines. This session examines how risk is allocated in practice, and what this means for market confidence and future supply.

• The impact of evolving CORSIA eligibility criteria on credit availability and market participation
• Who carries the risk? Allocation of liability across buyers, developers, standards and intermediaries
• The role of insurance and risk transfer mechanisms in unlocking supply
• Managing invalidation, reversal and delivery risk across the transaction lifecycle

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As the UK Emissions Trading Scheme (UK ETS) matures, aircraft operators are more familiar with being regulated and aware of their compliance obligations. As a regulator we are constantly seeking to improve our systems and facilitate compliance. Getting UK ETS compliance right in practice is critical to minimising risk and meeting organisational environmental targets.

We will be looking at;

• Navigating current UK ETS requirements.
• Lessons learnt from a regulator perspective
• Working effectively with your verifier and avoiding pitfalls identified in recent reporting cycles
• Reflections on the 2025 Emission Reduction Claims
• UK Registry update
• Enforcement and the deficit process

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The aviation industry's route to decarbonisation will need both carbon removals and Sustainable Aviation Fuel at scale.  Are these methods at loggerheads or can they be seamlessly integrated?  As Chair of the Coalition for Negative Emissions, a member of the UK Government's Jet Zero Taskforce expert group and as a SAF developer at Avonmouth, Paul Davies will give a UK perspective of how the two can be integrated, considering:

• How could an integrated 'Jet Zero mandate' work
• How an integrated strategy can lower the total cost of decarbonisation
• Encouraging passenger engagement at the point of sale
• How aviation contracts can help underpin the growth and competitiveness of each sector

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Airlines are increasingly required to manage multiple decarbonisation levers simultaneously—SAF, carbon credits and removals—often across different regulatory frameworks. This interactive discussion focuses on how to bring these elements together into a coherent, commercially viable strategy that balances cost, risk and compliance while supporting long-term decarbonisation goals.

• Building diversified carbon procurement strategies
• Evaluating spot vs long-term approaches
• Integrating carbon into financial and operational planning
• Moving from compliance to competitive advantage

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Carbon removals are rapidly shifting from a niche solution to a core component of long-term decarbonisation strategies. However, questions remain around scalability, cost and credibility. Our panellists will discuss how removals fit into the broader carbon landscape, how airlines should approach them strategically, and what risks and opportunities they present as the market evolves.

• Understanding the role of removals in addressing residual emissions
• Comparing permanence, credibility and risk vs traditional offsets
• Evaluating supply constraints and pricing outlook
• Positioning removals within decarbonisation strategies

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While carbon compliance introduces cost, it also creates opportunities for differentiation and strategic positioning. This session highlights how forward-thinking airlines are moving beyond compliance to leverage carbon strategy as a source of competitive advantage: whether through cost optimisation, brand positioning or smarter procurement.

• Leveraging carbon strategy for competitive positioning
• Aligning sustainability with financial performance
• Identifying opportunities to optimise cost and risk
• Turning compliance into strategic differentiation

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As the industry looks beyond conventional SAF pathways, eSAF and synthetic fuels are gaining attention as long-term solutions. However, significant challenges remain around cost, infrastructure and energy requirements. Here, our panellists will provide a realistic outlook on where e-fuels fit within the aviation decarbonisation pathway and what is required to scale them effectively.

• Comparing eSAF with bio-SAF across cost and scalability
• Understanding dependence on renewable energy infrastructure
• Evaluating timelines for commercial deployment
• Positioning e-fuels within long-term fuel strategy

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Behind every CORSIA strategy lies a complex operational reality. As the scheme moves deeper into active compliance, airlines must manage evolving MRV requirements, verification standards and global reporting obligations. This session focuses on the practical challenges of implementing CORSIA effectively and building robust systems that ensure accuracy, efficiency and audit readiness.

• Translating CORSIA requirements into clear, scalable operational processes across international operations
• Managing MRV, emissions reporting and verification cycles while ensuring accuracy, consistency and audit readiness
• Avoiding double counting and compliance risks through stronger controls, governance and data integrity
• Embedding CORSIA compliance into core operations to create efficient, repeatable and cost-effective processes

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As UK and EU ETS requirements tighten and CORSIA enters more active compliance phases, airlines are facing increased scrutiny, stricter enforcement and more complex reporting obligations. At the same time, growing SAF usage—particularly under EU ETS—has intensified focus on how emissions reductions are claimed, verified and aligned across frameworks. Compliance is no longer routine; it is a critical operational and financial priority.

This deep dive provides a practical, verifier-led update on the 2026 landscape, focusing on UK and EU regulatory developments, enforcement trends and the realities of SAF reporting and claims under EU ETS and CORSIA. It will examine where operators are encountering challenges—from data accuracy and audit readiness to book & claim models and cross-border compliance alignment—and highlight common pitfalls emerging from recent reporting cycles.

Attendees will gain clear, actionable insight into how to navigate UK and EU requirements, ensure robust and defensible reporting, avoid costly errors and define what “good” looks like in practice as expectations continue to evolve.

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One year on from its launch, the CADO SAF Registry is emerging as a critical piece of infrastructure in the aviation decarbonisation ecosystem. As demand for Sustainable Aviation Fuel accelerates, so too does the need for transparency, traceability and trust in how SAF is accounted for and claimed across global markets. This session provides a practical, industry-level perspective on how the registry is being adopted, the challenges encountered in its early implementation, and the role it will play in enabling scalable, credible SAF transactions across airlines, producers and corporate buyers. It will also explore how the registry supports alignment across regulatory frameworks and voluntary schemes, and what comes next as participation expands.

• How the CADO SAF Registry is enabling credible SAF accounting and reducing the risk of double counting across markets
• Early adoption trends, implementation challenges and lessons learned from the first year of operation
• Exploring the role of the registry in supporting book-and-claim systems and unlocking corporate SAF demand
• Aligning SAF tracking with evolving regulatory frameworks (including CORSIA and regional schemes)
• What needs to happen next to scale participation and maximise industry-wide value?

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What if there was a way to significantly drive down SAF’s premium today for each individual buyer? This Deep Dive session will first present an overview of the Co-Claim concept and how it can support SAF scale up including its connection to Book and Claim.  focus on the lessons learned from a concept that expands emission reduction ownership to include all operators across the aviation value chain. The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Smart Freight Centre and the Roundtable on Sustainable Biomaterials have worked with climate leading companies to establish a credible framework that can benefit all parties in the value chain.

This session will go in-depth on the pilot, which included airports, finance sector, OEMs, fuel suppliers, and freight forwarders in addition to airlines, corporate travellers, and belly cargo shippers, covering:

• Implementation insights from the project and how it can scale
• Improvements for SAF mitigation carbon accounting
• New roles for financial institutions in mitigation
• Mechanics on how the ownership and economics work
• Opportunities for conference participants to get involved

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To deliver value, airlines must align procurement strategies with regulatory requirements and financial objectives. Here, we will analyse how to optimise SAF use, improve transparency and ensure that every investment delivers both compliance and commercial benefit.

• Optimising SAF procurement strategies to balance cost, availability and long-term supply security
• Leveraging book & claim mechanisms and registry systems to improve transparency, traceability and flexibility
• Aligning SAF procurement with both regulatory compliance requirements and broader financial objectives
• Strengthening the long-term business case for SAF by linking investment to cost management, risk reduction and sustainability targets

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No single stakeholder can solve aviation decarbonisation alone. Collaboration across airlines, fuel producers, financiers and policymakers is essential to scale solutions. This panel unlocks how partnerships are being structured to share risk, accelerate deployment and explore new opportunities across the value chain.

• Exploring alliance-led investment models that enable airlines to pool capital, aggregate demand and support large-scale projects
• Sharing risk across the value chain by aligning airlines, fuel producers, financiers and policymakers around common objectives
• Accelerating deployment through collaboration that reduces fragmentation and improves speed to market
• Building scalable, collective solutions that move beyond individual efforts to industry-wide impact

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As demand for eligible emissions units grows, supply constraints are expected to intensify, creating long-term challenges for airlines. This focus of this session is to provide a forward-looking view of the CORSIA market, helping airlines prepare for pricing pressure, limited availability and evolving regulatory expectations.

• Forecasting supply-demand imbalance for carbon credits
• Assessing long-term pricing implications
• Evaluating procurement strategies in constrained markets

Preparing for structural compliance challenges 

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As carbon markets evolve, the need for modern, efficient infrastructure is becoming increasingly clear. Legacy systems are often fragmented, opaque and inefficient. This session explores how digitalisation and new technologies can transform market access, improve transparency and enable more effective participation.

• Modernising carbon market infrastructure to support faster, more efficient and scalable participation across global markets
• Reducing transaction costs and operational inefficiencies through improved systems, processes and market access
• Improving transparency and accessibility to strengthen trust, pricing visibility and decision-making
• Enabling more effective capital deployment by creating more liquid, efficient and investable carbon markets

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With regulatory changes and potential market linkages on the horizon, the future of ETS pricing remains uncertain. Here, participants will discuss expected price trends, policy developments and what they mean for long-term airline cost exposure.

• Analysing EU ETS and UK ETS pricing trends
• Evaluating potential market linkage
• Understanding regulatory impact on future prices
• Preparing for long-term cost exposure

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As SAF demand grows faster than supply, pricing volatility and cost management are becoming critical challenges. This session explores how airlines can manage SAF price risk, optimise procurement and prepare for long-term market dynamics.

• Assessing SAF pricing drivers and volatility, including feedstock constraints, policy impacts and regional supply dynamics
• Hedging strategies and contracting approaches to better manage cost exposure and price uncertainty
• Aligning SAF procurement decisions with broader financial planning, budgeting cycles and risk management strategies
• Preparing for long-term supply-demand shifts by anticipating market tightening, price evolution and future availability challenges

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After three days of discussion, this closing session brings together the key themes to address the fundamental question: can aviation realistically achieve net zero? By examining constraints across policy, economics and supply, this session provides a candid assessment of what lies ahead and where the industry must focus next.

• Evaluating whether current mechanisms can deliver at scale
• Assessing constraints across policy, supply and infrastructure
• Understanding geopolitical and energy security implications
• Defining realistic pathways for the next decade

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Governments have introduced ambitious mandates and regulatory frameworks to accelerate SAF adoption—but are these measures translating into real investment? This session critically examines whether policy is effectively catalysing market growth or creating unintended barriers. By exploring the interaction between regulation, capital and project development, the discussion will highlight what is working, what is not, and what needs to evolve to unlock scalable investment across SAF and eSAF.

• Evaluating effectiveness of ReFuelEU and global mandates
• Assessing whether policy is attracting long-term capital
• Identifying gaps between regulatory ambition and delivery
• Exploring mechanisms to de-risk investment

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As CORSIA moves into a phase of increasing compliance obligations, airlines are facing a tightening market for Eligible Emissions Units (EEUs), with limited supply, rising prices and growing complexity around eligibility. What was once a relatively straightforward procurement exercise is now becoming a strategic decision with significant financial and reputational implications.

This deep dive focuses on the practical realities of sourcing and securing EEUs in 2026. It will explore how airlines can navigate eligibility requirements, assess risk and develop procurement strategies in a market defined by uncertainty and constraint. Drawing on the latest market developments, the session will provide guidance on how to approach purchasing decisions, manage exposure and prepare for future supply challenges.

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